How pick'em scoring with betting odds works
Why bold underdog picks are worth more than safe favorites, how decimal odds become points, and how to actually win an odds-based pick'em pool.
Most pick’em pools give you one point for every game you call right. It works, but it has a flaw I always hated: picking a heavy favorite is worth exactly as much as nailing a gutsy upset. So when I built PickemSZN, I scored picks with real betting odds instead. Here’s how that works and why it makes the whole game better.
How odds-based pick’em scoring works
When you pick a team, PickemSZN reads the live decimal odds for that team and, if the pick wins, awards you those odds as points. A wrong pick scores nothing. So the riskier the pick, the more it’s worth.
A quick example with round numbers:
- Pick a heavy favorite at 1.30 odds and they win → you score 1.30 points.
- Pick a longshot underdog at 3.10 odds and they win → you score 3.10 points.
- Either pick loses → 0 points.
That’s the entire system. No confidence rankings to fill out, no spreads to read, just: how brave was the pick, and did it come in?
What “decimal odds” means
Decimal odds are simply a number that tells you how likely the bookmakers think a result is. The lower the number, the bigger the favorite; the higher the number, the bigger the underdog. A team at 1.20 is a near-lock in the market’s eyes; a team at 4.00 is a serious longshot.
PickemSZN reads these live from Betfair at the moment you pick, so the points on offer reflect the real market, not a number I made up. If you want the fuller breakdown of odds types, I put together NFL odds explained.
Why this beats one-point-per-pick
The magic of odds scoring is that it changes what a good week looks like.
In a flat one-point pool, the safe play is to pick every favorite and hope. It’s low-risk and, frankly, a bit boring, everyone’s board looks the same. With odds scoring, picking all favorites gives you a low, safe score, and one correctly-called upset can leapfrog you over a whole field of favorite-pickers.
That means:
- Underdogs are your comeback tool. Behind in your league? A couple of brave underdog picks are how you climb, because they’re worth the most.
- The safe crowd doesn’t run away with it. A perfect chalk week isn’t worth as much as it feels, so the leaderboard stays close.
- Every game matters. Even a lopsided blowout carries a decision: take the tiny safe points, or fade the favorite and swing for more.
A simple strategy to actually win
There’s no formula, but the shape of a winning approach is pretty clear:
- Bank favorites where you’re confident. Free-ish points are still points.
- Pick your spots on underdogs. You don’t need many to hit. One or two good upset calls a week is often the difference.
- Play the standings. If you’re leading, protect it with safer picks. If you’re chasing, take on more risk with higher-odds picks, that’s exactly what the scoring rewards.
If odds scoring isn’t your thing, there’s also a flat one-point-per-pick mode: picking against the spread. I explain that in Against the spread explained, and the full rules live on the how to play page.
Want to try it? It’s free. Make your picks at pickemszn.com and go find an upset worth backing.